Purpose and scope
The sirius index measures input cost pressure on freight transportation. It does not measure freight rates directly. Instead, it tracks the upstream signals (fuel prices, carrier capacity decisions, regulatory surcharges, and currency movements) that drive the variable portion of freight invoices.
The index is designed for C-level executives, procurement leaders, logistics managers, and finance teams. For CEOs and CFOs, freight is typically the second or third largest expense on the P&L: sirius provides forward visibility into how that line item is moving, and why. For procurement and operations teams, it provides the granularity needed to anticipate cost changes before they appear on invoices. The typical forward window is 1 to 3 months for fuel-driven changes and up to 12 months for capacity and regulatory shifts.
10 trade lanes
The sirius index covers 10 trade lanes selected to represent the major global freight corridors and the two largest domestic markets. Each lane has its own composite reading, reflecting the distinct cost drivers on that route.
| Lane | Direction | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Far East → Europe | Eastbound headhaul | China/Korea/Japan to Northern Europe, Mediterranean |
| Europe → Far East | Westbound backhaul | Northern Europe to China/Korea/Japan |
| Far East → North America | Transpacific eastbound | China/Korea/Japan to US West Coast, East Coast |
| North America → Far East | Transpacific westbound | US/Canada to China/Korea/Japan |
| Europe ↔ North America | Transatlantic (bidirectional) | Northern Europe to US East Coast and reverse |
| Intra-Asia | Regional | China, Southeast Asia, Japan, Korea feeder and cross-trade |
| Far East → ME/Africa | Southbound | China/Korea to Middle East, East Africa, South Africa |
| Middle East → Far East | Northbound | Gulf states, India subcontinent to Southeast/East Asia |
| Europe Domestic | Intra-regional | EU road freight, last-mile, cross-border trucking |
| North America Domestic | Intra-regional | US/Canada road freight, intermodal, last-mile |
Lane selection is based on trade volume (TEU and tonne-km), strategic chokepoint exposure, and data availability from public sources.
Five pressure layers
Each trade lane reading is a composite of five independent pressure layers. This decomposition allows users to see not just that costs are rising, but where the pressure originates.
| Layer | What it measures |
|---|---|
| Fuel | Energy cost inputs that drive fuel surcharges (BAF, FSC, EFS) across ocean, air, and road modalities |
| Capacity | Supply/demand balance affecting base rate pressure and general rate increases across all modalities |
| Surcharges | Regulatory, security, and crisis-driven surcharges including war risk, congestion, and environmental levies |
| Currency (FX) | Exchange rate movements on corridor-relevant currency pairs that affect invoiced amounts |
| Demand | Structural demand pressure from e-commerce peak seasons, regulatory shifts (de minimis rules), and platform-driven volume patterns |
Each layer is computed independently per lane and per modality, then combined into the headline composite. The decomposition is the key difference between sirius and single-number indices: when sirius moves, you can see which layer is responsible.
Data sources
The sirius index draws from a network of public and commercially licensed data sources spanning energy markets, currency exchanges, freight benchmarks, port and airport throughput, and geopolitical intelligence. No client-specific data is used in the computation. Every reading can be traced to its source.
| Category | Examples | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Energy & fuel | Crude oil benchmarks, regional diesel, jet fuel, bunker fuel pricing across major hubs | Public APIs & market data |
| Currency | Trade-weighted FX pairs relevant to each corridor | Central bank APIs |
| Capacity & throughput | Container and air cargo throughput at major ports and airports | Port/aviation authorities |
| Freight rate benchmarks | Published container and air cargo rate indices by lane | Published indices |
| Geopolitical & regulatory | Chokepoint status, conflict intelligence, regulatory surcharge announcements | Government & industry sources |
| Demand signals | E-commerce peak season calendars, regulatory shifts, platform volume patterns | Industry & government sources |
Base period and reading
The sirius index uses January 2026 as its base period, set to 100. All subsequent readings are relative to this baseline.
- sirius = 100: Cost pressure is at the same level as January 2026
- sirius index reading of 134: Input cost pressure is 34% above the January 2026 baseline
- sirius index reading of 92: Input cost pressure has decreased 8% from the baseline
The base period was selected to represent a period of relative market stability before the current crisis cycle. The baseline is fixed and is not rebased during periods of market stress. This ensures that readings remain comparable over time and that a CFO budgeting against the January baseline can directly read the deviation.
Three modalities
Each trade lane is decomposed into three transport modalities, each with its own cost pressure dynamics:
- Ocean: Driven by bunker fuel markets, container capacity cycles, and maritime chokepoint disruptions. Typically the most volatile during geopolitical crises.
- Air: Driven by aviation fuel markets, belly capacity on passenger flights, and seasonal demand patterns. Responds to energy shocks with a different lag than ocean.
- Road: Driven by regional diesel markets, trucking capacity, and domestic regulatory changes. Most localised of the three modalities.
The modal decomposition matters because different modalities respond to different signals at different speeds. A commodity price shock does not reach all three modes at the same time or with the same intensity. The sirius index captures these distinct transmission timings.
For each trade lane, sirius produces both a headline composite (blending all three modalities) and individual modal readings. The Pro report includes all three; the Free report shows only the composite.
Publication cadence
The sirius index is published on a weekly cycle:
- Friday: Official weekly readings for all 10 trade lanes, all three modalities. This is the reference publication.
- Intra-week updates: If any monitored lane moves more than 5% from the previous Friday reading during the week, an unscheduled update is published with the affected lane(s).
- Daily monitoring: Signals are captured daily (Monday through Friday) and compared against the previous official reading. This internal pulse check drives the 5% trigger mechanism.
All readings carry an ISO week number (e.g., W15 for the week of April 7, 2026) and a publication date. Historical readings are retained and versioned.
Variable vs fixed costs
Understanding what sirius does and does not measure requires understanding the structure of a freight invoice:
Fixed portion (not measured by sirius)
- Base freight rate (contractually locked for the contract period)
- Terminal handling charges (typically fixed or reviewed annually)
- Documentation fees
Variable portion (measured by sirius)
- Fuel surcharges (BAF, FSC, EFS) tied to fuel indices
- Currency adjustment factors (CAF) tied to FX pairs
- General rate increases (GRI) driven by capacity constraints
- War risk, piracy, and emergency surcharges tied to geopolitical events
- Congestion surcharges tied to port/terminal capacity
The variable portion represents a material share of total freight cost, varying significantly by modality and trade lane. The sirius Pro report includes a confidential calculator that maps your specific exposure based on your modal mix and contract structure.
Forward scenarios
Beyond the current week's reading, sirius projects three scenario paths per trade lane over a 1 to 12 month horizon:
| Scenario | Description |
|---|---|
| Base case | Current trajectory continues. No significant escalation or de-escalation in active crisis events. Commodity prices follow forward curves. |
| Escalation | Active conflicts intensify, additional chokepoints are disrupted, or commodity supply tightens further. Calibrated against historical crisis precedents. |
| De-escalation | Diplomatic resolution, chokepoint reopening, or demand softening reduces pressure. Recovery is modeled asymmetrically (carriers pass cost decreases slower than increases). |
Each scenario carries a confidence label and is calibrated against a proprietary library of historical supply chain crises spanning multiple decades of carrier behavior, geopolitical disruption, and demand shocks. Calibration methodology is not published to prevent overfitting to public benchmarks.
Quality and auditability
The sirius index is built on three quality principles:
Source traceability
Every data point carries a provenance tag. When a reading changes, the source data that drove the change is identifiable and dated. There are no interpolated or estimated values without explicit labeling.
Versioning
Every weekly reading is permanently versioned. If a correction is needed (e.g., a source agency revises a data point), a new version is published with a changelog. Historical readings are never silently overwritten.
Self-correction
The sirius index includes a feedback mechanism that compares its forward projections against actual outcomes. When projections deviate from realized values, the model's parameters are adjusted. This creates a track record that can be audited: prediction accuracy, direction accuracy, and confidence band calibration are all measured and published.
sirius maintains an internal accuracy ledger comparing forward projections against realized market outcomes. We measure directional accuracy, confidence band calibration, and prediction timing — and publish track record summaries to Pro subscribers as part of the weekly brief.
Limitations
The sirius index is a useful tool, not a perfect one. Users should be aware of the following limitations:
- Spot market focus: The sirius index measures cost pressure on spot and variable-rate freight. For long-term contracted rates with fixed surcharge clauses, actual exposure may be lower than the sirius reading suggests.
- Public data dependency: The sirius index relies on publicly available market data. If a source delays publication or changes methodology, affected readings are flagged but may carry lower confidence for that period.
- Aggregation: Each trade lane is a corridor average. Individual origin-destination pairs within a lane may experience different pressure depending on local conditions.
- Crisis non-linearity: In extreme events (full chokepoint closure, war escalation beyond precedent), sirius historical calibration may understate actual outcomes. Scenario bands attempt to capture this, but black swan events by definition exceed model assumptions.
- No carrier-specific rates: The sirius index measures market-level input pressure. Individual carrier surcharge formulas, update cycles, and commercial practices vary. The index does not model individual carrier behaviour.
Comparison with other indices
The sirius index occupies a different position in the market intelligence landscape than existing freight indices:
| Dimension | Drewry WCI | SCFI | Xeneta | sirius |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| What it measures | Spot container freight rates | Shanghai export container rates | Contracted + spot rates paid | Input cost pressure (upstream signals) |
| Direction | Backward-looking | Backward-looking | Backward-looking | Forward-looking (1-12 months) |
| Decomposition | Single composite | Single rate per route | Rate distributions | 5 layers (fuel, capacity, surcharges, FX, demand) |
| Modalities | Ocean only | Ocean only | Ocean + air | Ocean, air, road |
| Currency layer | USD only | USD only | Multi-currency | Trade-weighted FX per corridor |
| Use case | Benchmarking what the ocean market charged | Benchmarking Shanghai export rates | Understanding what others paid | Anticipating where costs are heading |
These indices are complementary, not competitive. Drewry and SCFI tell you what the market charged last week. Xeneta tells you what others paid. The sirius index tells you where cost pressure is building next. Used together, they provide a complete picture: backward verification and forward anticipation.