What a reading tells you
A sirius reading of 100 represents January 2026 - the baseline period. Every point above or below 100 is a percentage point deviation from that baseline. A reading of 118 means the cost pressure inputs are 18% above that level. A reading of 94 means they are 6% below it.
Four zones help orient the response:
What a reading of 118 does not mean is also worth stating: it does not mean your freight bill is 18% higher. sirius measures variable cost pressure on the inputs to freight pricing. Your actual freight invoice change depends on your contract structure, the proportion of your freight cost that is variable, and how carrier surcharge mechanisms pass through the pressure. The sirius Pro report includes a P&L impact calculator that translates a reading into a cost delta for your specific spend profile.
The four pressure dimensions
Fuel pressure
When crude oil moves significantly and carrier fuel surcharge schedules have not yet adjusted, fuel pressure leads the index. sirius has consistently flagged fuel pressure elevation ahead of carrier FSC announcements - the fuel layer registers the market move before it appears in quoted rates. Pro subscribers receive the current week's signal every Friday.
Fuel pressure is the most responsive of the four dimensions to sudden market events. A geopolitical shock that disrupts oil supply typically surfaces in the fuel layer within 1-2 weeks. For shippers watching sirius, a fuel pressure spike is the earliest signal to check contract renewal timing and reassess modal mix assumptions.
Capacity pressure
Blank sailing programs reduce effective vessel capacity before rate announcements follow. sirius correlates booking lead-time signals and vessel scheduling data to detect capacity tightening before rates move. During chokepoint events, sirius captures the divergence between capacity and fuel pressure signals - the sequencing of these layers provides an early detection signal ahead of carrier rate announcements.
Capacity pressure typically builds and resolves more slowly than fuel pressure. Utilization spikes driven by blank sailing programs can persist well beyond the program itself - the duration varies by lane and carrier response. For procurement, a rising capacity dimension is the signal to act on contract renewal well ahead of the announcement window.
Surcharge pressure
BAF, EBS, and emergency surcharges compound on top of base rates. sirius tracks surcharge schedules across major carriers to model the real cost per TEU - not the quoted base rate. When a carrier declares a Peak Season Surcharge, the surcharge dimension registers the movement within the same week, before it appears in your invoices 30-90 days later.
Surcharge pressure is the most event-driven of the four dimensions. It can spike sharply when carriers declare emergency surcharges and resolve quickly if withdrawn. A rising surcharge dimension with stable capacity and fuel usually signals a tactical carrier pricing move rather than a structural market shift - useful context for contract negotiations.
FX pressure
For shippers with USD-denominated contracts paying in EUR, MYR, or IDR, a 5% FX move can offset a 3% rate reduction entirely. sirius models the net impact per lane and currency pair. When USD strengthens significantly, FX pressure can contribute materially to the composite reading even if spot freight rates appear flat.
FX pressure tends to be a secondary amplifier rather than a primary driver in most market conditions. But it is consistently underestimated because it is invisible until the Currency Adjustment Factor resets on the next billing cycle. sirius surfaces the FX dimension weekly, giving finance teams the signal before the CAF adjustment arrives in AP.
What sirius looked like during recent disruptions
When sirius detects elevated pressure on a trade lane, the reading tells you which dimension is driving it and how the pattern compares to historical precedents. The examples below are illustrative - they reflect the structural shape of how the four dimensions behaved, not precise reconstructed readings.
The signal network: chokepoints and straits sirius monitors
Chokepoint throughput is a primary input to the capacity pressure layer. Four strategic straits account for a significant share of global maritime trade. sirius monitors vessel throughput at each chokepoint using vessel movement data from multiple sources, and applies a capacity adjustment when conditions deviate from historical norms.